Government shutdowns can be political earthquakes that paralyze Washington, DC. But for the economy, shutdowns are often barely a blip.
Whatever economic damage occurs during that time tends to be limited and quickly fixed. Even the last government shutdown – the record-long 35-day shutdown in 2018-2019 – had few long-lasting impacts on the US economy and financial markets.
That could very well be the case again this time around, especially if the looming shutdown proves to be brief. Yet there are reasons this episode could be different – and not in a good way.
The US economy in 2025 looks more vulnerable than during past budget fights. The job market is stumbling, and the Trump administration is threatening even more federal layoffs. A government shutdown would just add more chaos and uncertainty, at a time when there is already plenty of both.
The bill requires 60 votes. Meaning the democrats are required in order for it to pass. If 100% of republicans vote to pass and 100% of democrats vote to fail, then it is undeniably the Democrats initiating the shutdown. There’s no way around this fact.
From this perspective, Democrats have to do more work to prove why the shutdown was necessary. Historically, it is the party initiating the shutdown that gets more blame for the pain that comes from the shutdown.
When people are feeling pain as a result of the government shutdown, Republicans will say it is Democrats at fault for this blame. All they have to do is support the funding bill and the pain is gone.
Democrats have to say it is Republican’s fault for not negotiating. This is a much tougher argument to make, especially the further into the shutdown we get.
And last thing to consider, Republicans likely want the government shutdown. It would probably give more freedom for Trump to behave as an authoritarian.
All things must be considered. I don’t think most people in Lemmy will fairly consider the tough decision Democrats have to make.
Bullshit. Democrats have no obligation to vote for a bill they had no say in. If Republicans want Democrat votes, they negotiate. If Republicans want to pass it with no Democrat votes, they do away with the filibuster. They want to keep the filibuster but have it be a tool that only Republicans get to use.
Danc is trying out the “if you would just consent, this wouldn’t be rape so it’s really your fault” approach.