Four years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian economy is showing clear signs of structural exhaustion. The contours of a genuine economic endgame are coming into view for Russia. This is the finding of a new Kiel Report published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
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Man I dont know about the missiles. But yeah I feel we read this article every week. “Sanctions are about to grind russian economy to a halt”, “Russias oil industry about to implode”, “Russian war industry about to hit its limit”.
It just never really seems to do so.
They have been having widespread fuel shortages but yeah, they can keep limping along until they cannot I guess.
The media tend to oversensationalize things, the Russian oil industry imploding isn’t happening yet, but it has gone down to the point that nearly all of Russia is struggling to find enough fuel.
Killing off an economy takes forever, the effects of sanctions are slow, especially if an economy propped up by war time spending. But no amount of financial propping up can save an economy if its energy demands can’t be met. To be fair, Ukraine isn’t even close to disabling Russia’s energy infrastructure, they’re only seriously hitting one aspect of it.
No you haven’t, for 2-3 years it was predicted, difference now is that it’s actually happening.
Most of us thought Russia would collapse sooner, but now it’s actually here. The Russian economy and infrastructure is collapsing, with widespread fuel-shortages despite heavy rationing, and fuel so expensive farmers can’t afford to harvest.
The Russian federal economy is out of money, their wealth fund is used up, and they’ve sold gold reserves to get by beginning already months ago.
Where did you see that claim? Seems a lot like a straw man to me, because everybody have said all the time that the Russian war industry will be the last to be affected by the economic collapse. Because it has the highest priority.
yes we have. lemmy was basically flooded with garbage tier articles for the past years not predicting it but claiming it as current fact.
well they better get putins treasure trove he has stashed in european banks.
It was predicted for more than 2 years, and it’s happening now.
The Russian economy is collapsing, The Russian wealth fund is empty, and Russia has been selling gold reserves to prop up the economy, oil exports are dwindling, and they have to import refined oil products now at inflated prices.
The Russian infrastructure is collapsing too, and farmers can’t get the harvest done, because fuel is either not available or too expensive so it will cost more to harvest than to let the crops rot in the field.
The fact that you are not seeing it, is not because it isn’t happening.
I have no idea why so many upvote you not knowing what’s going on.
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WTF? Sanctions have absolutely been part of reaching the point we’re at now.
Other comments by you have been misguided, but this is way way out there.
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Facts are not a matter of opinion.
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How long do you think draining a country’s economy takes?
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It took 4 years for an impoverished Germany, and they were committed to all out war. So 4 years doesn’t sound silly.
Also this article is about it actually happening now, not a prediction
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Are you somehow implying that she was wrong?
What she said would happen is exactly what happened.
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Exactly what Von der Leyen said?
Weaken Russia’s economy.
That means less money for foreign supplies, and machinery, means fewer missiles, fewer shells, fewer tanks.
No, but maybe ask Ukrainians if they’d rather there be no sanctions and more missiles in their cities.
But you know all that, you’re just arguing in bad faith.
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it’s literally in my comment above, read.
Why the fuck should I quote you on that? I never said you said that.
What you did do is imply that it didn’t impact Russia’s war making capabilities, and I told you that you can go ask Ukrainians about that.
yes you are.
“Just asking questions” that you know the answers to. You fuck off
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It’s an enormous country with an abundance of natural resources. It was always going to take a fair amount of time before they got desperate. Now they are, and it’s not going well, hence the endless missile and drone barrage.
They lost their momentum on the ground a while back, and now they’re reduced to holding what they can and hope they can break the Ukrainian morale with civilian casualties. There’s nothing new there. They’re using the same tactics they used in Chechnya all over again. The only difference is the weaponry used.
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I live about an hour from the Russian border. I know people on the other side. I can read Russian well enough to follow their news since we’re probably fairly high up on the list of targets if this goes really wrong. Not that that would end well for Russia, but they’re not exactly behaving rationally atm.
I know what it really looks like inside Russia. Can you claim the same, or do you just like to spread misinformation?
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You are, huh? Where?
You didn’t answer my question.
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The war will probably not end until Russia has collapsed or Putin is removed.
Russia is absolutely collapsing now, but it takes time for the biggest country in the world and with 140 million people to collapse entirely.
How long we do not know, but despite Russia has attacked Kyiv heavily 2 times within a week, is not a sign in any way that they are winning or even standing their ground. Ukraine now has 3 times the attacks into Russia compared to what Russia is sending the other way.
And we are only 12 days into the 40 days and 40 nights campaign Zelenskyj announced! And the Flamingo missile is now evidently VERY real!
It happens slowly, then all at once
Absolutely, Putin has used extreme measures of kicking the can down the road, so it has been happening more slowly than expected. But now Putin and Russia are out of tricks, and things seems to be accelerating a lot now.
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Obviously this war is already making things more shitty for all Russians. 2 million people in Crimea in panic because it’s hard to get out without fuel. No electricity, no fuel, no Internet, and food is rationed.
The fuel shortage is now a problem for all regions of Russia, and fuel is rationed by federal decree.
Siberia has the advantage that Ukraine has very few drones with long enough range to hit them. But yes most of the eastern Russian federation depend on the west economically and probably also for food. But many Russians in those eastern parts have already moved back west, resulting in for instance mining cities that are empty. Some are populated with Chinese and North Korean workers, to continue mining, because the Russians are moving away.
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Part of the reason this happens is these changes take a lot longer than anyone would really like.
But, there are widespread fuel shortages in Russia, most of the country is facing some type of rationing, and that’s something that hasn’t happened before.
They don’t though. They’re still doing it, but they’re not doing it more, and that’s not for the lack of trying.
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The number of missiles and drones launched by Russia has been fairly steady since last year, sure there are some peaks here and there, but on average the numbers don’t go up, rather they’ve been going down slightly for the past few months. Ukraine’s countermeasures have become much more effective though with less than 10% of drones making it through.
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From a previous comment, I understand that they are being forced to use the significantly more expensive ballistic missiles, which use up fuel they can’t afford to use, specifically because their drone success ratio is so far down lately.
All other military options they have are removed: artillery, infantry and armor get killed by drones. Russian drones get shot down before reaching target. They are hoping they can force a better settlement with the current terror bombings before they run out of fuel entirely
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It’s not quite “more every week”; the numbers seem to be roughly stable since April. Of course it’s still a lot.
One question that occurs to me is whether they can actually sustain this. Missiles aren’t that cheap or fast to produce so it’s possible that they’re throwing out more than they can sustain in an attempt to wear down Ukraine at the last moment.
I’m not an expert on the weapon systems involved so maybe I’m way off base.
The past week we’ve seen 2 massive attacks on Kyiv, the first was the biggest yet for the whole war, and the 2nd was almost as big.
But my guess is they were panic attacks by Putin, because he has nothing else he can do. And he wanted to retaliate for the attacks on refineries in Saint Petersburg and Moscow. That were both a very strong demonstration of power from Ukraine.
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Russian economy getting destroyed and Russia killing civillians are 2 different things.
They can keep up the murder for long, but they can say goodbye to their war goals.
We’ve been hearing the same idiots saying “sanctions didn’t work immediately therefore they don’t work” since 2022. Those of us with higher than room temperature IQs realised that Russia planned for the war and sanctions to the tune of a $600 billion savings fund.
I still find it hilarious that Russia left about half of this in hostile countries that confiscated it immediately. Imagine Russia had that extra cash? They probably would have had a chance of winning this war without that blunder.
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You would have a point if it was sanctions alone that Russia was facing.
It is fortunate in this case that Russia is also up against a well motivated Ukrainian army whose attacks have been increasing in sophistication as the war has progressed. Russia on the other hand has been on the back foot recently, they have appeared unable to adjust to Ukraine’s drone strikes on logistics behind the front lines and have had a net loss in square km gained the last 4 months in a row.
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When somebody “hits their limit” that means they are stagnating and not falling or collapsing. It is also important to be clear that this is about the economy.
If the Russian war economy would not be able to increase overall production(not necessarily production of specific weapons, but overall), you would expect them to slow down their advance and take higher losses, as the soldiers lack weapons and whatever to make that happen. We also we see fewer air attacks against Ukraine.
That seems to be the case. Russian personal casulties are generally pretty high and they are not taking a lot of land. At the same time Shahed attacks are 30% down in June compared to May.
Big losses would happen, if Russias economy collapses and only some time after that. That might be the case given the current fuel situation in the country.
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First half of your sentence yes, second half of your sentence no. There are ebbs and flows of numbers of missiles launched, but compared to earlier in the war I’m pretty sure Russia is launching significantly fewer now, especially if you consider the destructive power of each missile used
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Yeah, because things don’t happen immediately.