This starts in November, and not a midterm saver. Unless US is able to significantly restrain Ukrainian attacks on refineries, oil instead of diesel is what will get exported more. The reason for US to do this is that they know oil prices will collapse the global economy based on their November military plans for Iran.
I don’t think it can substantially reduce diesel prices prior to midterm unless it encourages US refineries to go even harder as if $6+ diesel retail wasn’t already enough for them to go full out. You’re right that diesel export capacity for Russia will take a while to rebuild.
Just like he’s been claiming the Iran war will end right after the midterms
There’s 2 general possibilities for “ending” Iran war after rather than, with bonus points for elections, prior to midterms.
Respectful sincere peace with Iran, all the while declaring victory as US forces leave. This raises questions about just how victorious the US is. The reason this path can’t be chosen before midterms is “Iran failure/impotence” is neither a good look, nor a reason to vote for the diaper licker candidates.
War escalation under theory that this will force Iran to beg to surrender. “end of war” prediction comes from more probable war until 2028 election…
I doubt US establishment is capable of peace with Iran, and so option 2 is only desired path. Still there are 2 huge obstacles.
Democrats sweep both houses in midterms. War powers, and war budget not passed. Impeachment in the air.
even if GOP rigs a win, a $700B military budget increase will have bond markets revolt harder. Global economic collapse is already teethering. There is no war path, or pretense of super power status, that ends well for US/global economy.
Pressures to end the war (just leave with big victory speech) are inescapable. Fucking it up hasn’t stopped US before.
This starts in November, and not a midterm saver. Unless US is able to significantly restrain Ukrainian attacks on refineries, oil instead of diesel is what will get exported more. The reason for US to do this is that they know oil prices will collapse the global economy based on their November military plans for Iran.
Russia doesn’t have much diesel to export. Putin instituted a ban for a reason
This will help the midterms in that it’s an “accomplishment” Trump can point to that will totally fix his fuckups right after the election
Just like he’s been claiming the Iran war will end right after the midterms
I don’t think it can substantially reduce diesel prices prior to midterm unless it encourages US refineries to go even harder as if $6+ diesel retail wasn’t already enough for them to go full out. You’re right that diesel export capacity for Russia will take a while to rebuild.
There’s 2 general possibilities for “ending” Iran war after rather than, with bonus points for elections, prior to midterms.
Respectful sincere peace with Iran, all the while declaring victory as US forces leave. This raises questions about just how victorious the US is. The reason this path can’t be chosen before midterms is “Iran failure/impotence” is neither a good look, nor a reason to vote for the diaper licker candidates.
War escalation under theory that this will force Iran to beg to surrender. “end of war” prediction comes from more probable war until 2028 election…
I doubt US establishment is capable of peace with Iran, and so option 2 is only desired path. Still there are 2 huge obstacles.
Democrats sweep both houses in midterms. War powers, and war budget not passed. Impeachment in the air.
even if GOP rigs a win, a $700B military budget increase will have bond markets revolt harder. Global economic collapse is already teethering. There is no war path, or pretense of super power status, that ends well for US/global economy.
Pressures to end the war (just leave with big victory speech) are inescapable. Fucking it up hasn’t stopped US before.