if Jen’s work does not change
Jen’s job will change. In some cases it will disappear just like technology replaced Jen’s grandma who was a centralist.
how is this different to the invention of the microwave?
It’s in terms of impact. The microwave made it possible to heat food in an office. AI may make the same office obsolete.
Jen from accounts will not know she’s using an LLM. This is the part you don’t get.
Also the cost per token is dropping. Just like any technology, it’s being optimised.
You seem pretty sure of your position and nothing I can say will change your mind. Maybe you’re right and lots of people like me are wrong. Quite frankly it would be massively surprising if all these investments, research, and product development ended in nothing especially with this rate of adoption, but hey… it’s not impossible, just very unlikely (IMHO ofc) 👋
And where is that new industrial revolution?
I use AI daily for work and my usage is growing steadily. I partially automated some stuff and it completely changed how we search knowledge. In a year I may flip it from me driving AI to AI notifying me when my input is needed.
I saw people wiring an LLM to chat with their shell. It sounds a silly exercise but it allows anyone to work with a terminal.
According to some reports AI also dramatically lowered the entry barrier to perform classic cyberattacks and there are the first cases of AI fishing.
It’s pretty wild already and much more advanced than one year ago.
That industrial revolution should have come already
Do you ever think that maybe you are missing it?
I’m sure that lots of managers are having lots of meetings to discuss what happened, and that’s probably the hardest hit they had: noise.
The revenues will be slightly impacted but they will hardly notice it on quarterly reports.
Does that impact the company value? I don’t think so.
Calculate the 0.6% of your wage: that’s what $300M is for them.
The total allegedly includes subscriptions to Disney+, Hulu and ESPN. That falloff reportedly marked a 436 percent increase over the usual churn rate for the service.
So 317.000 users would have cancelled anyway and the actual protest was 1.3 million. If my googling is right, in total there are ~207 million subscribers.
Summarizing, they lost the 0,6%. Much more that what I expected, but hardly noticeable. I’d love to know how many already subscribed back.
If I’m missing the point everyone else seems to as well, and when all your customers keep missing the point of your products, your business is not long for this world.
Whatsapp wasn’t profitable while it spread worldwide with little to no monetization. It killed the SMS, was bought for billions by Facebook (that wasn’t profitable either in the beginnings), and now it’s everywhere. There are lots of products following this path and AI is just going to be the biggest one in history, so far.
AI is becoming ubiquitous, it’s being integrated in our way of working, it’s creating new professional figures and new possibilities, and it will kill a lot of stuff in the process. It’s simply false that everyone misses the point.
My point is, which product, built by AI or built on AI is going to earn a trillion to pull OpenAI out of the hole and make AI keep existing after 2027?
It’s going to be a new industrial revolution, so the answer is more or less everything. There is that famous quote from the 70s when someone wondered who would want a computer at home. This is the same story and you will have AI at home at some point. Actually, you may be using one occasionally without even knowing.
This wave of AI gave virtually anyone a chance to build products for a very low cost and a decent quality that was out of reach even for small teams years ago. If you think that it’s all about selling GPUs you’re missing the point.
When we say “burning money” just keep in mind that money is not coal: you only transfer it to someone else. People are making money with AI right now, just not AI companies.
I’ve been working for a company that has been burning money for over 10 years, it never became profitable, and its potential is way less disruptive than AI. No problem with funds, and it’s still burning money today.
Even if AI is just hype (I doubt it) the potential is so high that investors will throw money in for decades even with no return.
That’s a $1M question. IMHO it will happen as soon as there will be a killer application. One of those thousands startups will develop something solving a big problem.
Imagine if a company could deliver the complete automation of software development. Not only all companies would buy it, but the AI would would work 24/7 improving itself. That’s the kind of big breakthrough we are talking about.
I can’t give you a date, just that I’m strongly convinced that something like that will happen.