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Joined 11 days ago
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Cake day: October 29th, 2026

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  • I think the issue is that the drive train below them is the same. Who is in charge does have a BIG impact on some very key points but the larger general shape of something cannot be changed drastically.

    Alan watts once said that you would have to mad to want to be President because it is like nominating to be in charge of a runaway truck with no breaks. You can steer it in different directions but you also have somewhat limited agency. So long as the core funding structure below persists, you can only nudge things.

    I am not 100% convinced that if Democrats won 2024 election that we wouldn’t be in Iran right now. That said, if we were in Iran, it probably be a lot more sedate and measured. Probably be Also that is a big IF. I mean Democrats were the ones that spent 2 1/2 years negotiating a peace deal with them only to have Trump rip it up in his first term. I’m not saying it would be the same, but there would be the same pressures from below.

    So in that sense, it does matter who is in charge but we also need to tackle the base drive train.


  • It was Nate Hagens (The Great simplification podcast) who said this when he worked at Lehman Brothers about confidence. Don’t worry, he learned quickly that he was the bad guy and changed his ways completely.

    Anyway, when all the new recruits came in they gave them a pop quiz. It starts off simply “What is a derivative?” “How to bonds work?”, and with everyone being young an confident they all answer enthusiastically. Eventually they drop in a question that is really difficult and oddball that nobody would know, naturally everyone starts trying to formulate and answer only to have the teacher stop them. Teacher just says, “Don’t try to fake it, that helps no one. What you say is. I don’t know, I will find out, and I will get back to you.”

    You don’t have to have an answer to everything.


  • It was always heading this way, I am surprised it lasted as long as it did.

    I knew it was a flop well before it even came out for one key reason. Remember when the iMac/iPod/iPhone came out, it seemed like everyone else started trying to desperately copy Apple on those. Other businesses saw these and immediately thought “Oh crap we need to catch up now!”. Before iPhone even released Nokia was demoing a phone (that never came out) in which they rushed multi-touch onto Symbian OS just to not look behind.

    Cybertruck came out and nobody else even remotely hinted at copying it. Every car company was like ‘Yep, you guys can just go for it, we won’t stop you.’.