He thinks they can force their hand by saying it’s the Democrats that are preventing the military from getting paid.

So, basically, if Mike Johnson was your dad and (after he spent all day tracking your internet habits) you were abducted, you’d be a goner and he would go around blaming the abductors for refusing to release you for free.

Ah yes, back when the seatbelt kept you from falling out of the plane, and your seat cushion was a parachute made from old bed sheets.

three times a year.

WTF is up with MS doing this rate limiting? I just learned that Win11 will lock you out of your own machine for 2 hours if you restart too many times, like if you have a dualboot and are doing something that requires restarts to resolve.

Yes

I’m looking at the books for several companies

Well with all that proprietary information, please do enlighten us with specifics. Who has loans, and how much? From which banks?

I’ve been saying the same thing.

The 2008 housing bubble was predicated on cheap lending. It was all debt. It was massive amounts of toxic debt sold around Wall Street, like using Trump Coin or counterfeit cash used to buy a house.

The vast majority of what’s happening here is not debt. Sure, some, but very little. Even the OpenAI AMD stock swap thing is swapping a gamble on stocks worth real money, not debt.

IMO the first sub-bubble to pop will be all the time and effort wasted on “Startups” that are nothing more than a couple people acting as a wrapper for an AI agent. That’s not really going to impact the economy too much on its face, but suddenly a lot of people are going to go from being “entrepreneurs” to being truly unemployed.

Edit: Also, just saw this gem, and THIS is how you get a supercharged 2008 repeat, bank deregulation and $2.6 trillion in lending. Which is exactly how we got to 2008’s subprime lending.

No way.

In about 1965 someone would have asked Icelanders what they do on their summer holidays, because so few of them show up in continental Europe, and they would reveal that they’ve been building a massive resort empire named Eircksonland on the coast of what we would call Florida. All Viking-themed, and packed with absurdly sunburned blonde people.

Hey! Don’t insult ducks like that! This clownshow website would be about 20% better if ducks were involved.

That’s the bet-swap. They have both have a contractual obligation to exchange investments in each other. It’s a suicide pact OR it’s a bromance glow-up, depending on your point of view. AMD is giving them chips on the (accurate so far) bet that buying chips will inflate AMD’s stock value.

Again, this is not a thing a rational person would do because it’s both not sustainable and not realistic unless you expect the value of everything to got up for 10+ years. It’s a recursive bet on a bet on a bet. It’s like buying T-bills.

The issue here is this isn’t debt!

Debt would be SoftBank giving OpenAI $78 B in cash and then in a year or two asking for payments of cash back.

This investment/stock circular thing is like if you were building a house and lived next to a brick yard, and convinced the brick yard owner to give you bricks to build your house. Your house would be the demonstration of how lovely the bricks are, and in return you’ll give them 10% of the title of your property. If you sell that property in 2009 or 2024, the value will change, but that’s a risk and gamble you both take. And they can sell small parts of that 10% whenever they want, if they want.

None of that is debt. Debt would be a loan from the bank that requires payments over time.

To be fair to Barack Obama, I think that even he didn’t think he deserved the Peace Prize for basically just being elected. His response after finding out was very much a “uh…ok…really? You sure about that?” because it undermined him and the Peace Prize

But my relief at not having to hear gloating vs. the usual orange-flavored aggrievment is real.

Someone somewhere took debt

the simple answer is that the people buying AMD stock are the ones paying for those chips

In my eyes this deal is a speculative investment leveraging debt.

But so you have to pick one. Unless you’re suggesting that all the day traders and retirement funds and investment funds are buying or already holding AMD bought it all with credit cards. Which is not the case, which is why this isn’t debt.

Ask yourself - If it’s debt, then who is the creditor? Who holds the loan paperwork? What rate did they get? What’s the collateral? None of those things are true here.

Stock value isn’t real any more than the value of gold or silver or bitcoin, but it’s all relative to the value of the stock when sold. But it being sold is the point. The stocks are worth money. Real actual money. If the market hits a correction - as other more bubble-like parts of the AI industry and the current general economic shitpile are likely to afford us all in the next few years - then OpenAI and NVIDIA and AMD won’t be carved up and sold for parts after a bankruptcy by a bank because they’re still able to sell the stocks to fund payroll. As long as no one sells off a ton of stock quickly and the stock value doesn’t collapse, then it’s simply a risky circular a bet on themselves.

Don’t get me wrong, I think this is an innovation in stupidity and shortsightedness. But call it what it is, which is not debt.

Totally expected it to be 2 hot dogs

This isn’t the way economic bubbles are typically structured. At all.

Typical economic bubbles are built on speculative investment leveraging debt until the whole thing reaches a point where the debt can’t realistically account for possible growth anymore. This would be OpenAI asking SoftBank for $78B to buy chips that have at most, a maximal 5 year life cycle, and then OpenAI not having cash on hand to pay down that $78B in 2 years.

Using this stock reacharound is actual money changing hands. Yes, stock dividends and sales are part of that, but it’s not debt. It’s certainly not sustainable, but it’s not something that will lead to bankruptcy for OpenAI or NVIDIA or AMD if they fail to turn profits. But the money is real at the time it’s moved around. Surprisingly, the LLM crowd has been fairly consistent in not running to highly leveraged debt for funding.

This is a pump and dump scheme if anything, and seems like a great way to find out later that people buying stock in AMD “invested” in shrinking their portfolio over the long term. IMO only a fool would buy stocks that funded this, but it’s a slow-mo bubble for those people, not the economy in general.

Holy shit, is this a real thing now? You’re not allowed to restart your machine too much?

Thank the gods I ditched my dualboot setup months ago, I would have ran into this same issue.

Stephen Miller just said so on CNN, and CNN deleted it.

Not that hard. Even Kimmel had it on and only focused no the glitch out.

Also fair

Oh, hey. Looks just always ignored that, apparently.

Yep - Why I put it so far back on the list. I’m also not a huge fan of Brave Search unless through the filter of Mullvad. It’s fine, but not my daily driver.